Farmer’s Almanac Winter 2025–2026: Old School Predictions Meet Climate Reality
Two winters ago, small town schoolteacher Marisol Rodríguez in Vermont rigged up snow tires and a backup generator after a freak January blizzard caused a storm so sudden it stranded her in her home for three days. “I rationed firewood by candlelight and played board games with my niece,” Marisol recalls. That experience taught her and her tight knit community that winter surprises are emotional legacies.
This year’s Farmer’s Almanac winter forecast promises another “wild weather ride” ahead, with repeated cycles of cold, rain, and snow “Chill, Snow, Repeat” is the official tagline for 2025–2026. The Southern Plains and Southeast, including Texas, are expected to see wetter than average conditions, including cold rain and occasional freezing precipitation. Meanwhile, the Almanac warns of a “Wet Winter Whirlwind,” particularly in northern regions like the Great Lakes and Northern Plains, signaling heavier winter storms and little downtime between them.
But how much weight should we give these old school forecasts? The Farmer’s Almanac relies on a centuries old formula involving sunspots, lunar cycles, and historical patterns. A University of Illinois study found its accuracy to be just over 50% barely above a coin flip. Still, its value lies in setting expectations, especially for planning farms, travel, and community readiness.
On the science side, NOAA’s winter 2025–2026 forecast paints a more measured picture. The agency is anticipating a neutral to weak La Niña pattern, with average precipitation for much of the U.S. though parts of the northern Rockies, Montana, and Wyoming may see wetter than normal conditions.
This divergence between “folk wisdom” and modern modeling highlights a broader climate reality: warming winters are becoming the norm, not the exception. A warmer Arctic, and amplified weather swings can make seasons more unpredictable. Even as snow remains vital for ecosystems and water supplies, it's becoming harder to forecast with any certainty.
What You Can Do Now
- Winterize Your Home Early: Seal drafts, insulate pipes, and service heating systems before the first cold snap. According to NOAA, early preparation reduces energy costs and protects against sudden freezes.
- Stock an Emergency Kit: Keep extra blankets, non perishable food, bottled water, batteries, and a backup power source. The Red Cross recommends a three day supply for each family member.
- Plan for Travel Disruptions: Monitor forecasts from both NOAA and your local weather service before any trips. Keep your car’s winter kit ready with chains, jumper cables, and sand or kitty litter for traction.
- Stay Informed & Flexible: Compare long range predictions like the Farmer’s Almanac with real time meteorological updates.
